Private Insurance, Health Care & Corruption

Opening the NY Times this morning I read of record profits reported by the U.S. insurance industry in 2009. The nation's five largest for-profit insurers had a combined profit of $12.2 billion, according to a report by the advocacy group Health Care for American and overall the companies increased their profits by 56 percent in 2009, a year that saw 2.7 million people lose their private coverage.

As a student of economics I appreciate capitalism - but this is no free market scenario. I also understand the theory of insurance as  what it is supposed to be: a form of risk management used to hedge against the risk of a contingent loss. An equitable transfer of the risk of a loss, from one entity (the person) to another (the insurance company), in exchange for a premium. But in health care, from a public good standpoint, can we really continue to allow private companies to take the cream off the top of our imploding health care system ? What is the fear of the public option ? Its about money and corruption.

The insurance companies continue to drive profits up amid rising costs by paying out less and less in claims while charging more for premiums. This is irrefutable. As the PriceWaterhouseCoopers Health Research Report showed, payments for claims as a percentage of premiums have dropped significantly in the past 14 years, while Medicare outlays have stayed at 97% (see graph below).

The true reason the "public option" is so unpopular among some folks , particularly congressional types, is that when a publc option comes to the marketplace the price will be so much more competitive as to render the for profit insurance companies useless.  Its called competition. If one follows the money in the world of Congress, both for democrats and republicans, there is a high correlation between their views and contributions by the existing profiteers of our health care system - the insurance companies among others. Carl Bernstein recently lamented that the debate over and the writing of health care reform legislation has shown us "Congress at its worst."

The concept of author, professor and activist Larence Lessig "Good Soul Corruption" is a good idea to get your head around if you question why, given the huge profits of private insurance companies, many oppose a public option as some form of evil.

Watch the video below and learn how profit interests effect public policy.

 

Kindle vs Publishers - The Wrong Debate

Reading the recent news accounts of how Amazon and the publishing industry are wrangling over what price point digital content should be sold for makes me laugh. Think of the Titanic and the crew worrying about how furniture is arranged while the iceburg has gashed a whole in the ship's side. As Jeff Bertolucci recently explained in his PC World article "Publishers Short-Sighted in E-Book Price Fight":

Another episode of As The E-Book Turns wrapped this week, with Amazon locked in a page-turning battle with the publishing industry. The plot twists are many, but here's a quick outline: Amazon wants to continue charging $10 for e-book versions of most new titles and bestsellers, but the industry's leading publishers think that price is too low. Macmillan, for instance, wants $13 to $15 for most of its e-book titles, a demand that Amazon conceded to last week. Hachette, another major publisher, also plans to drop Amazon's $9.99 price model, and would rather see many e-books in the $15 range. HarperCollins has made a similar move. Meanwhile, the industry just gained an ally in Apple, which has agreed to let publishers set the price of e-books designed for its new iPad tablet. It's no surprise that publishers would want higher e-book prices, particularly for hot new bestsellers. But their strong-arm efforts to eradicate Amazon's consumer-friendly pricing aren't a good way to grow a nascent e-book market (and e-reader) market.

The challenge for the existing publishing industry today is the same faced by many businesses and industries. So many rules have changed, yet leadership fails to see a way to avoid the pain dealing with the change would require. Hence the chest beating among publishers which amounts to digging their heels in for a fight they cannot win. Its all about economics. In a business where barriers to entry used to be up front costs in promotion, development, distribution and production, new business models have emerged to render the past value of publishers increasingly mute.

Look at Blurb for instance. Watch their CEO Eileen Gittins who founded the online book publishing service after she had an "awful, brutal" experience trying to get her own book of photography published. That generated a "personal passion" in her for the idea that anyone should be able to publish a book with high-quality photographs or other art work. Less than three years later, Blurb has become a phenomenon -- publishing more than 80,000 titles in 2007 and creating a community of book lovers that numbers 250,000. As I mention, the debate between publishers and kindle amounts to the wrong debate about the industries future.

 

 

Move to Mobility Continues With Misunderstood iPad

For all the controversy around the recently introduced Apple iPad, one thing is certain. This is but one in a long series of devices which will continue to be introduced to the market as part of a computing revolution. The advent of these technologies combined with demographic shifts and global ism will fundamentally change everything about our world.

Love it or hate it, the IPad is just one example of many more highly functional internet connected devices with more features delivered at lower and lower prices to come. These devices are highly mobile and will get smaller, becoming more imbeded into our daily lives.

The impact of products like iPad, combined with an increasingly available high speed Internet grid will eventually revolutionize each and every business model and organization existing today - and sooner than one might think.

When one reads analysis of the device, like Rueter's article " Publishers embrace iPad, but revolution unlikely", it shows how many continue to measure the success of an evolutionary product in terms of old paradigms. The device will not rescue a failing publishing industry, such is hope for the dying. It and its off spring to come, however, will lead the way to completely change how people produce, distribute and digest content; leaving the extant industry vanquished in its wake. Just look at the explosion of devices reflected in the graphic below.

The same is true for vast segments of the entertainment industry. When one reads that the iPad device underwhelmed Hollywood, people should laugh aloud. These devices were not designed to save the dinosaurs of that industry. However, they will be a part of redefining the entire method in which entertainment content is created, distributed and deployed as the demonstration below reflects.

Let's see the iPad for what it is. Not a savior but as part of a progression of innovations that will ultimately change everything.

Important Trends for the Future of Business

The future ahead for fitness and wellness or any business or industry for that matter will be increasingly difficult as growth will become harder to achieve in mature markets like the U.S. and the E.U. Doug Anderson, SVP, Research & Development, The Nielsen Company, confirmed this assertion in his recent summary report on what future consumers look like.

Here are the 5 key trends that can be taken from the report with a sixth thrown in for your consideration:

1. The less-developed world will comprise the clear majority of growth and the rise of the impoverished in the less-developed world will fuel increased demand in those markets.

By 2030, world population will have grown by around 20%. Only 3.2% of this growth will come from the more developed world. U.S. fertility rates have fallen by 44% since the Baby Boom peak and are projected to continue to fall by another 12% over the next several decades. Falling fertility, combined with rising life expectancy and the large Baby Boom generation just nearing retirement age, equates to an aging population.

By 2037 nearly one in three households in the U.S. will be headed by someone over the age of 65.  Household size will decline across the board with a large share of the population living in one or two person households.  Middle and upper middle classes will shrink the share the most and these consumers fuel the majority of demands for consumer products including fitness and wellness services.

2. Businesses Focus Will Need to Be on Market Share

The share of households that have children will continue to decline as a result of an aging population. By the middle 2020s, the share of U.S. households with children under 18 will fall below 30%.  This is a key demographic for fitness, wellness and other consumer and product industries. As a result players will increasingly have to focus on retaining their customers and taking customers away from others in a stable to shrinking marketplace.

3. Messaging to a Multi-Cultural Marketplace Will be Essential

Multi-cultural marketing will be critical when promoting a business. The majority of population growth in the U.S. will come from new immigrants and the children they have in this country. Since most immigrants are young, families with children will become more ethnic, more quickly, than the total population. By 2025, the majority of families with children in the U.S. will be multi-cultural. Less than half of families with children will be native born non-Hispanic White.  The industry will need to appeal to this emerging demographic.

4. New Needs Will Emerge From A Maturing Market

Boomers will rewrite what it means to be old as they have rewritten what it means to be children and adults.  According to Daniel Pink, author of DRIVE, "The Surprising Truth about What Motivates Us", 100 Boomers turn 60 every 15 minutes and they are seeking "Purpose" for the rest of their lives.  This is a demographic that research suggests is connected online 98% of the time ! Hence my item 6 below.

5. Spending on Consumer Goods & Services Will Decline

As population slows in the U.S. Household size will decline across the board and so will consumer spending. The impact of these two trends means that after 2020, per household spending will start to fall.

6. To Be Competitive Social Media Will be an Important Tool

Social Media is a missing trend.  Those competitors that have an experimental sense of social media's possibilities will benefit.  There is no clear blueprint for how to proceed. Social media strategies are a new frontier. The efforts are flexible, motivational and engaging when done well. And, if you make a mistake, they are pretty easy to correct. Reach your customers more effectively and less expensively.

How Health Care Kills People

My Dad, William R. O'Rourke, Jr., passed away on Sunday, December 27, 2009; a day after his 72nd birthday (details here for friends and family). He suffered from CLL, a form of leukemia and had a tough battle during his final days. Dad was a terrific man. He had a distinguished career as a highly dedicated Air Force officer and pilot. He was a consultant to, ironically, the health care industry and served as a contract executive for a number of firms. He was a professor and intellectual while being a very down to earth and personable man and I loved him very much. Thanks for everything Dad - you will be missed.

We all have or had fathers and many of us are lucky enough to have received their support and love during our lives. Given this, what is painful to see first hand is the nature of the health care system they enter into when they are very ill. My experience personally during the past year is wrought with evidence of a dysfunctional system. When people get really sick, its broken nature becomes all the more apparent. This is not meant as an affront to the many professionals who attempted to provide care, nor is it about being able to afford care because Dad thankfully had the means. My sentiments are based on witnessing a SYSTEM that fails to provide quality because it is based on flawed economics.

If you haven't read David Goldhill's New Yorker article, How American Health Care Killed My Father, you must. See some of his views above in the video. While my Dad was ill, I can promise you the quality of his life and his experience of care was woeful and would have been much better if the system were changed fundamentally. David's testimony above reflects many of the same things I experienced.  As a business executive like me, David began a personal exploration of a health-care industry that for years has delivered poor service and irregular quality at astonishingly high cost. It is a system that is not worth preserving in anything like its current form. And the health-care reform now being contemplated will not fix it. He has a radical solution to this agonizing problem.